How good would it be for $TXL to be listed on a major Exchange NOW?

Very good!? Pump and dump? Would it be good or bad for TXL's image?

A lot of people seem to agree that TXL needs to be listed on a major Exchange. Some will say:

  1. It needs to get listed for price to soar, OR
  2. Price will soar if it gets listed, OR
  3. If it gets listed now price will pump and dump.

It seems like everybody knows the answer: everything is so simple. I don't think like that. Actually, I think I have more questions than answers.

First of all, let me try to separate points (1) and (2) above since a lot of people will say they are the same.

For me they are not the same because they depend on the mindset of the person who said it.

Some people just want to make money and leave

This is the kind of person that doesn't know or doesn't care about the project. He either bought in at a very low price (or market cap) because someone he knows said it is good and return will be over 10x or 100x or maybe he is one of those ICO / IDO hunters who just want to ride the "Alt-coin wave". They buy the token at a very low price and are the first ones to sell when it becomes available to the public in general.

This kind of person, most of the time, has a timetable. They want to make money now, or very soon. So they really don't care what's going on. That is why they say "Just get it listed on an Exchange and the price will soar". They don't say it, but what they really want is to "Sell my shares, make my 10x, 20x, 100x and move to the next one".

Other people really support the project

These guys are more cautious. They do understand that, if TXL gets listed, prices will soar. But the way they say it, it seems like price soaring will be a consequence and not the goal. Do you understand the difference to the first guys?

Don't understand this incorrectly. These guys also welcome the listing on a major Exchange. Their attitude towards this is that is different. A person that thinks like this might sell part of his stake after some pump. But it is unlikely that he would dump all of it.

These people understand that price soaring is a direct result of everything that was done, everything that is being done and everything that was delivered. And they probably understand that this is still the beginning: a lot is still to come and, with that, more future appreciation.

It will pump and dump

I find this harder to analyze as, for me, pump and dump is the result of over-marketing and under-delivering.

And right now, the impression I have about Tixl is that they are under-marketing. The thing with Marketing is that, if you do too little of it, you might not reach your market and you die. If you over do it, you might spend all your budget, over-promise and, when it comes time to deliver, it is less than what the market expected. Guess what happens then.

Human nature

I have a great example. This really happened to Netflix many years ago, and it wasn't even their fault. The numbers are not real. I just used them to illustrate the example. Pay attention to people's behavior. It was the end of some Fiscal Year. Netflix had always delivered a 40% or more in growth year after year. They forecasted 50% growth for this year but the market expected more. Analysts (the guys who know more than anybody else) said that Netflix would report a 70% growth this year. So the stock was soaring in anticipation to the official news. It was up 15% in one day!

It so happened that Netflix reported an 60% growth for that year. Let me rephrase this to what the analysts published: "Netflix grows only 60%". And stock price went down. Lower than  the level it was in the beginning of the day.

See how sometimes this is just completely out of control? There is human nature at it's best. Who said 60% is "only"? That was more than what Netflix had forecasted in the beginning of the year! But it was under the 70% the other people said it would be. I had friends telling me "jump in now, people still didn't notice the report was really good, this company is really good".

Back to pump and dump

We have no control over human nature. In my opinion, when TXL gets listed on a major Exchange, it will go up. I just don't know how much. It could be 50%, it could be 2x or it could be 10x. Who knows?

What I think I know is this: if it goes more than 10x, it will surely dump right after. Hey, who amongst you wouldn't want to get some or all of your money back at 10x from today? Yes, this is the moment I believe in Technical Analysis! The people who just want to make money and don't even know what the project is about will take their profits and leave. Others might sell some of their stake, have a party and then sit quiet for the next big thing to happen. Some might sell waiting for the dump to buy again. And some might just do nothing because they believe the true reward is still years ahead. In my opinion, all are right!

Now let's talk about deliverables

I hope you agree with me that pump and dump is the result of over-promising and under-delivering. And you probably agree with me that, until now, Tixl has really not done very much Marketing at all. That said, it is hard to say that the Tixl team has over-promised.

On the other hand, they have been working hard on the technical side and they are starting to deliver. Keep in mind that the Autobahn Network is like a building foundation: you put in a lot of money and time, dig a hole and then you close the hole. When you look at it you say: "so much time and money and I see nothing". That is what they are delivering now. And they will show it by presenting the world with the Tixl Wallet. Which is live for BTC since January!

I think there are 2 milestones to cross right now: go-live with the ERC20 integration to the Autobahn and get the Security Audit done. Both very close to happen.

They already showed the world they know how to bridge tokens from one chain to another. The ETH-BSC bridge is live.

What do you think is Tixl's business?

I like to make parallels and examples because I think they help people understand. I made an analogy of Tixl comparing it to a very old company: Carnegie Steel Company. Why am I comparing Tixl to Carnegie? Because Carnegie's business was to produce steel. Steel that would be used to build skyscrapers, for example.

One of the innovations that Andrew Carnegie brought for his product was steel for structural beams. The problem was that nobody believed that steel could be used for building skyscrapers, for example.

In order to overcome the main objection, he built a skyscraper himself, using his steel. That was to show what can be done. Once people and other companies saw the possibilities, they started to buy Carnegie's steel and use on their own projects.

Do you think Tixl's business is to develop a wallet? Or a DEX?

You might want to re-think this. In my opinion, Tixl is like Carnegie. Their thing is to build and maintain the Autobahn. The reason why they are developing the Tixl wallet and why they might develop the first Autobahn DEX is to show people that the Autobahn is there and that it works. Just like Carnegie did almost 100 years ago.

The most important thing for Tixl now is to have more users, more people who believe in the project and are willing to build their businesses using the tools and the foundation that Tixl has created.

And that is probably what their Marketing will try to do. Let's be careful not to be disappointed with their message. Have you ever seen a marketing campaign to sell steel? If yes, you will agree that it is very different to the marketing campaign prepared to sell a skyscraper condo in downtown Miami.

Tixl's Marketing

The Message

I expect to see something like: "Keep your assets. Just bring them to our Autobahn so you can lower your costs and get transactions done in seconds."

Instead of: "Buy our $TXL tokens because this is a great project and we will go 100x."

Partnerships - a collaborative approach

I wrote another article where I talk about Apple and Sony (and how I think they did things right or wrong). In addition to developing an incredible product, it seems to me that Tixl has the right ideas regarding the business plan. It is a collaborative approach, instead of a competitive approach. That makes a huge difference!

If this is done properly, the flow of people bringing their cryptos from other chains to the Autobahn could be huge! And still, it is possible that no one even knows that $TXL exists. And this is a curious situation because on one hand you see there are a lot of transactions happening, and you know things are great but, for some reason, the price of $TXL just won't go up. Keep this in mind: Netflix had a few moments when they were in a similar situation - those were the best moments to jump in. Because suddenly, people noticed what was going on and then: MOON!

The product lifecycle curve

I think this curve is quite interesting. I think Marketing professionals love it too. I'm no expert so excuse my mistakes. But I find it useful to explain where we are today.

In this graph, we have the number of users on the vertical axis and time on the horizontal. So it represents the number of users of a generic new product as it is launched and as time passes by.
  • Phase I - this is right after the product is launched. There is usually a rapid growth in the number of users. These people are the early adopters, the ones who like to try new things and be the first ones.
  • Phase II - in this moment, there are some doubts whether the product will survive or not. The  early adopters already bought in but are not buying again because they are waiting to see if other people will buy it or not, some gave up. Products can die during this phase.
  • Phase III - if products don't die in Phase II, then they enter the mass adoption phase. This is when everybody wants to buy / use the product. It grows exponentially. Companies with physical products often face problems here because they aren't able to manufacture as fast as the demand - competitors copy the products.
  • Phase IV - product maturity - that's when the number of users becomes steady, everybody knows the product, it's good, it delivers what people want.

I hope everyone will agree with me that Tixl is on Phase I. And we're very close for this first curve up. Things that will happen in this phase are:

  • Tixl will launch the Tixl wallet with BTC, ETH and ERC20 integrated to it
  • Tixl will go-live with v.1.0 of the Autobahn network - after the Security Audit is ready
  • Tixl will start a Marketing campaign
  • Tixl will get listed on some major Exchange
  • Tixl will go live with the Smart Contracts engine (further this year but still phase I)

How good will it be for $TXL to get listed on a major Exchange now?

I honestly don't know. What I know is that the listing cannot be the only thing to be done. So, for those who think that just listing is enough, I'm sorry but I don't agree. Just getting listed can bring all kinds of results but none of them will be long-term value.

If everything else is done, we will have a nice Phase I, with more than 10x gains. 

And what comes after?

After that, "dark times" will be back - when a lot is being done but we actually don't see. If Phase I was done with the correct message to the market, we should have more people, other than the Tixl Team working on their own projects:

  • Other blockchains will be asking to get integrated to the Autobahn, 
  • People will be developing DEXes and other dApps,
  • People will be developing more wallets to work on the Autobahn,
  • People will be developing Centralized Exchanges - imagine the possibility of buying/selling USDT directly from your bank account - but the USDT you bought is already in the Autobahn.

During this Phase II, we will live a situation similar to what we live today: it seems like a lot is going on but nothing seems to appear. Once again, if everything is done well, Phase II will show a smaller decline than the one I show in the graph, and it might also take a shorter period of time. As soon as all the new projects start to go-live, the we will enter the next phase.

Phase III - mass adoption - this will happen suddenly and here we should see an extra 100x growth, if everything is done properly.

OK. There is no way I can know what is actually going to happen. But whoever makes plans works like this: you make a plan and then you execute. You get prepared for the worst and you hope for the best. Once again, it seems to me that Tixl has the right vision, the right product, the right business plan and they are delivering. Am I wrong to be optimistic?


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